The demand-side disruptions caused by the Covid pandemic now appear to be largely priced out of the market, with crude prices rising to their highest level since January of last year, before the virus sent energy commodity prices plunging. LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC expects oil inventories to drop by about 400 million barrels in 2021 in the latest supply and demand outlook being reviewed by a technical meeting on Tuesday, two OPEC+ sources said. One, there are valid valuation concerns as the run-up (for tech stocks) has been significant. Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs raised its price target for Brent oil to hit $75 a barrel by Q3, up from a price target of $65. However, forecasts given the unique uncertainties of a global pandemic are highly risky. By comparison, the Taiwan benchmark was up just 19% in that period, an indication that people were taking out loans faster than stocks were appreciating.Local investors had little reason to fear losses. Value shares -- or those with low prices relative to some fundamental indicator like earnings -- are typically more dependent on the business cycle than tech stars like Tesla Inc. Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/JPY Charts to Watch, Crude Oil Prices Hold Gains as Stockpiles Fall, OPEC Lifts Demand Outlook, Crude Oil Price Eyes EIA Report as Pipeline Shutdown, India Fog Outlook, Dow Jones Retreats as Inflation Heats Up, Hang Seng and ASX 200 in Sour Mood, Gold Prices Fall as USD and Yields Creep Higher Before Inflation Data, Gold Price Outlook Turns to Fedspeak After Consumer Inflation Expectations Jitter, GBP/USD Shrugs at UK GDP, May Drop on US CPI Data, Dollar Prepared for Nasdaq Volatility if Inflation Data Can Stir Interest, Mid-Week Strategy webinar begins right now and there's some vol to work with A summer taper “could be an elegant way to taper without causing the tantrum.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P. (Bloomberg) -- At least nine new U.S. crypto ETF filings stoked optimism regulatory approval was close. A representative for LinkDoc could not immediately comment. Losses can exceed deposits. Wall Street: -0.40% It’s a sign the industry is growing up fast.“In any emerging market we’ve seen these inefficiencies decrease over time,” said George Zarya, founder of Bequant, a crypto prime brokerage that caters to systematic traders. Economic activity itself has also been improving as governments ease social distancing measures. )For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P. If the peaking in oil demand (or even just the prospect of peaking) causes prices to fall, this is likely to trigger a so-called “rebound effect”, in which falling prices stimulate higher demand. The Nasdaq 100 fell as much as 2% at the open, compared with a 1.1% drop for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.“Renewed value leadership at the factor level and the broader risk-on rebound suggest the economic cycle is continuing rather than peaking,” Evercore ISI strategists led by Dennis Debusschere wrote in a note.The Russell 1000 Value Index has jumped more than 1.3% this month while the Nasdaq has lost money. Still, it’s a victory for short sellers who had been driven almost into extinction as the S&P 500 rallied as much as 90% from the pandemic trough in March 2020, with all but two members climbing. )“Margin trading boosted the Taiex over the past few months, which may add to declines if they face margin calls,” said MasterLink Securities Investment Advisory President Paul Cheng.The fear of further losses was evident in a stock market where individual investors account for about 60% of transactions. Bitcoin ETF approval was being touted by many industry boosters as a nearly sure-thing in 2021, amid new SEC leadership, Wall Street’s growing crypto embrace and the launch of similar funds in Canada. Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day. Related: The Pandemic Could Lead To A Major Oil Supply Crunch This is bullish for oil prices. Lupa entered India less than two years ago and has built a portfolio of technology investments, according to the filing.Murdoch and Shankar previously worked together at Star India, which became the country’s largest media company before Walt Disney took over a swath of 21st Century Fox’s assets, including Star, in 2019. Crude oil is expected to trade at 60.10 USD/BBL by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. "OPEC oil output rose by 30,000 bpd in April to 25.08 million bpd as higher Iran supply offsets cuts mainly in Libya, Venezuela." Global oil demand is set to benefit from stronger economic recovery and vaccinations in the second half of this year, OPEC said on Thursday. Just like in stocks, the investing style sells derivatives to take advantage of big demand to hedge price swings -- which causes the volatility priced into options to be higher than what’s likely to come to pass.For option writers like St. Gotthard, that means the premiums are much juicier, though they also come with a higher risk of having to actually pay out, like an insurer during an earthquake.“The major difference at the end of the day is how much premium retail investors are willing to pay,” says chief investment officer Daniel Egger. A market-derived gauge of bets on rising inflation in Germany rose to its highest level in almost seven years. Or so the thinking goes.Read More: Veterans of FX’s Wilder Days Are Loving Bitcoin’s VolatilityWhile crypto die-hards have made merry like this for years, the relentless rallies across the tokensphere this year are drawing more Wall Street converts seeking riches and new thrills.Take Mark Treinkman. A recent rally in so-called alt-coins have put those gains to shame -- Ether is roughly 460% higher year-to-date, while Dogecoin, the joke cryptocurrency that’s found new life as an internet meme, has surged more than 16,000% in the past year, according to CoinGecko.Three Bitcoin ETF filings have been acknowledged by the SEC, meaning it has a limited amount of time to either approve or reject the proposals. “We’re looking at a strong recovery in the second half and the inflation outlook is improving. “There are more professional players that come in.”(Updates first chart and market value in first paragraph. Thai Air, which saw a record loss of 141 billion baht last year, joins other global peers in trying to get debt relief as mass flight suspensions cause carriers to seek financial help from governments and investors.Read more: World’s Biggest Economies Bet Vaccine Passports Can Save TourismA senior lawyer at Kudun & Partners Ltd., which is representing bondholders, said in March that their initial response to the proposed restructuring was favorable. Its chipmakers flourished as Washington sought to hobble Beijing’s efforts to build a domestic chip industry. 2) EUR/USD jumping right back into resistance zone after CPI release Loading... (13 April 2020) OPEC+ countries agreed to cut their overall oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day at the 10th extraordinary meeting held on April 12. For instance, when longer-dated futures in pretty much any asset class trade higher than the spot price -- known as contango -- the former almost always converges to the latter as the contracts mature.That’s popularized the crypto basis trade, where an investor goes long the spot rate and shorts the futures.When Bitcoin last peaked in mid-April, the December contracts were nearly 4% higher than August which were in turn about 2% higher than the spot reference rate, as speculators unleashed bets on rising prices. The number of bearish put contracts outstanding has jumped to a record. Other speculative corners of the market have also suffered, with an ETF tracking special-purpose acquisition companies slumping 20% this year.Read more: Rout Lands on Nasdaq Where Shorts Are Massing, Bulls Getting OutWith ARKK down some 34% from its February peak, options activity paints an increasingly gloomy picture. World oil demand is set to grow by 5.4 mb/d in 2021 to reach 96.4 mb/d, recovering around 60% of the volume lost to the pandemic in 2020. Others prefer a more cautious approach, suggesting they’re open to even expanding the 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.2 trillion) program.Both sides might be able to agree on reaffirming the ECB’s commitment to keep financing conditions favorable, while citing the market lull should they buy less. She will wait until after the second quarter before deciding whether to change the guidance, she said.The results are “the first tangible signs of restructuring success,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Philip Richards and Mar’Yana Vartsaba wrote in a note. Taiwan’s economy became one of the biggest winners from U.S.-China rivalry. And for those choosing the systematic route, competition is rising.For example, in order to get an edge in its market-making strategy, BKCoin has recently installed servers at Asian crypto exchanges, a move known as co-location in the high-frequency world of stocks. https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-12, RT @KyleR_IG: * US APRIL CORE CONSUMER PRICES RISE 3.0% Y/Y; EST. By contrast, the December oil contracts were trading beneath August’s on the same day, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg.“The crypto market is still dominated by retail investors who use excessive leverage and bid the premiums for futures,” said Nikita Fadeev, a fund manager at $60 million crypto unit at quant firm Fasanara Capital.Trades common in the industry also include short-term momentum and a form of statistical arbitrage, which bets on gaps between various tokens eventually closing like when Ethereum is surging but Bitcoin isn’t, Fadeev says.As assets grew, the fund recently appointed Laurent Marquis, the former co-head of derivatives at Citadel Securities, as chief risk officer, and Steve Mobbs, co-founder of quant fund Oxford Asset Management, as senior adviser.Over in Zug, Switzerland, St. Gotthard Fund Management has transformed from an old-school family office writing options on Swiss shares to a digital evangelist in its income strategy aiming to yield 8% a year. An earlier version corrected the year in the second paragraph. That’s up 72% year on year.On a smaller scale, the same happened in Taiwan. That last set showed consumer prices growing at an average annual pace of just 1.4% in 2023, far less than the ECB’s goal of below, but close to, 2% -- and not yet back on the pre-pandemic track.While business surveys signal a sharp pickup in price pressures amid surging commodities and logistical logjams, the underlying trend has weakened again. https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/140187219 While the disruptions are likely short-term, it undoubtedly helped the bull case for oil. (Bloomberg) -- Short selling, a strategy that was all but left for dead in the wake of the meme-stock mania, is working pretty well at the moment.Hedge funds in particular seem to have timed recent tech stock declines almost perfectly, pushing up bearish bets just before the market rolled over. In fact, if the sector continues to fall, they’ll actually add to their shorts.”Both the biggest ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF experienced a spike in short sales in recent weeks. However, with demand recovering faster than supply, by the end of the year, ~810 million barrels of excess supply will be utilized. However, with Gensler’s recent remarks in mind, it’s unlikely that any of those filings will be given the green light in their current form, according to Dave Nadig, the chief investment officer at data provider ETF Trends.“There’s zero chance any existing filing goes through with no modifications whatsoever. Italian 10-year yields -- a key gauge of risk in Europe -- rose toward 1% for the first time since September.“I don’t see how the ECB will be able to sell a slowdown in purchases given the inflation outlook and financial conditions,” said Nick Kounis, head of macro and financial-markets research at ABN Amro Bank NV. DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets. Find out more about the major currency pairs and what impacts price movements. Full-year revenue should be slightly above that of 2020, compared with earlier estimates of a decline.The earnings are the first overseen by Knof, who joined the lender in January and quickly presented a four-year turnaround plan centered around cutting about a fifth of its costs and a quarter of the domestic workforce. I generally like to close with a prediction on … What has caught some managers off guard is the emotional reaction to their edicts that it was time for employees to head back, in person. “On the other hand of course we’ve written calls we wished we hadn’t in those moves up.”In fact, going long crypto over the past year has proved the easiest and most profitable way to tap into the boom. World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, March 2021. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 51.69 in 12 months time. He has slated one of the best-performing units this quarter, the capital markets business, for cuts.The strong showing of securities trading is also reminiscent of results at crosstown rival Deutsche Bank AG, which also boosted its full-year revenue outlook on the back of first-quarter results at its trading unit. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. Oil demand growth slows because demand for diesel and gasoline nears a plateau as new efficiency standards are applied to internal combustion engine vehicles and electric vehicles hit the market. )For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P. ‘I bought the house for $125,000 and it is now worth approximately $285,000, with a total owed of $185,000.’. New data showed a worsening Covid-19 outbreak in an island where almost no one is vaccinated. • We expect growth in oil supply to come from (1) OPEC, (2) US shale oil and (3) selected offshore basins e.g. But she also said she’s not expecting “real difficulties for our clients” and highlighted growing confidence in Germany’s economic recovery.Commerzbank last week increased the expected costs of the turnaround plan to slightly over 2 billion euros after an agreement with the lender’s workers council on the job cuts was more expensive than previously anticipated. 1) Big inflation beat, USD gives back gains -@axios, I can see the Fed's strategy following the fastest headline inflation figure since 2008: https://t.co/yUeN7hbvyj, Fed's Clarida: Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages. No entries matching your query were found. (Recasts with statement from airline. The digital token was trading at less than $80 at other venues, offering an obvious opportunity for investors to make money simply by buying in one place and selling in another.It’s one of the best-known -- albeit diminishing -- discrepancies exploited by the likes of Alameda Research, a crypto trading firm filled with former traders from high-frequency shops. Short interest remains near an all-time high, according to data from IHS Markit Ltd.(Updates price moves throughout)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P. Chipotle just dropped the hammer on its rivals by lifting its hourly minimum wage to $15 an hour. Registered Address: 32 Old Slip, Suite 803; New York, NY 10005. 3) Gold - bull flag remains in-play Based on our Global Energy Perspective reference-case demand insights, current OPEC+ intervention will be sufficient to help balance the market in 2021, with prices remaining at a sustained level of $50 to $55/bbl through to 2025. --- Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com, To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwateron Twitter. FTSE 100: 0.76% Sign up now to get the information you need! (Bloomberg) -- Cathie Wood’s miserable month continued on Tuesday, as her flagship exchange-traded fund extended declines and its assets dropped below $20 billion to the lowest since January.The Ark Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK) slid 1% as of 9:47 a.m. in New York. Crude Oil Price Forecast: For 2021 And Beyond. $USD $DXY $TNX, NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (APR) Forex trading involves risk. On Wednesday that fear turned into panic in Taiwan, offering another warning for the world on what can happen when leverage unwinds.The trading day started out quiet in Taipei’s $2 trillion stock bourse. (Bloomberg) -- Discover what’s driving the global economy and what it means for policy makers, businesses, investors and you with The New Economy Daily. It’s happened several times with each new variation of cryptocurrency, and NFTs are set to be the next big thing among investors who are interested … Continue reading → The post What Is an NFT and How Much Is It Worth? #ausbiz $usd $dxy, that support hit - we can call that 'transitory' $EURUSD https://t.co/4eSc3Olgij, Global economic backdrop, OPEC, supply and demand factors all seemingly positive, Australian Dollar Outlook: Inflationary Theme in Spotlight as AUD/USD Sputters, British Pound Forecast: GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD Rates, FX Publications Inc (dba DailyFX) is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker and is a member of the National Futures Association (ID# 0517400). Taiwan Stock Crash Shows World Dangers of Too Much Leverage, Alibaba Health-Backed LinkDoc Plans $500 Million IPO, James Murdoch, Disney Alum Seek $300 Million for Asia Media SPAC, What a record $2.1 billion deal says about America's marijuana sector, Goldman Sachs director reportedly quits after striking it rich in Dogecoin, Cathie Wood’s Misery Mounts as ARKK Assets Dip Below $20 Billion, Chipotle minimum wage hike to $15 deals 'psychological' blow to restaurant industry: top analyst, Commerzbank Boosts Outlook After Posting Surprise Profit, Wall Street Uses Old Tricks in $2.4 Trillion Crypto Jungle. World oil consumption will rebound by a vigorous six million barrels a day this year, according to … (Reporting by Alex Lawler; Editing by David Goodman). Oil Boom 2021: Where It Currently Stands And Where We Go From Here. Leveraged trading in foreign currency or off-exchange products on margin carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The Relative Strength Index remains under the 70 overbought level despite the rapid price increase. Hedge fund managers bold enough to revive bearish wagers are now reaping gains after being stung by Reddit-driven short squeezes on GameStop Corp. and other meme stocks earlier this year.Morgan Stanley did not specify what kind of stocks hedge funds are targeting, though a look at exchange-traded fund and futures trading shows growing distaste for technology, where stock losses are piling up as inflation concern puts pressure on their stretched valuations. “Investors were crazy as there were lots of news during trading hours and we didn’t know if they were true or not.”By the end of the day, the index had pared its losses to 4.1%. (Adds CFO comment in fourth paragraph, updates shares in sixth. Teladoc Inc., also heavily weighted in the ETF, dropped less than 1%.The stock rotation out of expensive-looking tech names is proving tough for Wood and her firm, Ark Investment Management, with investors pulling more than $500 million from the main fund in May so far.Big bets on the likes of Tesla and Bitcoin lured billions to Ark’s products, but more recently investors have been souring on the kind of pricey shares the money manager favors in companies with often unproven technologies. Actual: 1.3% Yet stocks have continued to rise, with the MSCI All-Country World Index closing at a record as recently as Friday. USD41 billion 10-year USTs hit the street later in the session. FX Publications Inc is a subsidiary of IG US Holdings, Inc (a company registered in Delaware under number 4456365). “If Gensler isn’t yet fully comfortable with crypto exchanges, it’s highly unlikely he would bless a Bitcoin ETF.”The SEC didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, has doubled so far in 2021 after climbing over 300% last year. Businesses have a record 8.1 million jobs to fill. Analysis Crude Oil Gasoline Distillate Propane. As more mainstream investors get behind Bitcoin, boutique firms are joining the likes of Mike Novogratz in an ever-broadening crypto rally that keeps breaking records.For those who can stomach the price swings, the threat of exchange hacks and the byzantine market structure, complex fast-money trades are offering an alternative way to ride the digital mania.At GSR, the firm’s bread and butter is market-making, where traders pocket the spread between buy and sell orders.In stocks, that’s a nearly oligarchic business where the likes of Citadel Securities and Virtu Financial operate at lightning speed. Upbeat demand prospects, along with depressed drilling and refinery activity are helping drive prices higher as the market attempts to find a balance amid the improving economic backdrop. Shankar worked for the Asia Pacific unit of Disney after the deal until his departure in December last year.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P. State after state, America's largest cannabis companies are paying up for land grabs as more states legalize marijuana. It rose 128% in value. How much should I give him back? The bank benefited from an increase in net commission income in the quarter, while a 126 million-euro benefit from the European Central Bank’s targeted longer-term loan program helped offset pressure on net interest income.The bank for now is sticking with its guidance for a full-year loss, though the first-quarter performance has increased chances it may post a profit after all, Chief Financial Officer Bettina Orlopp said on a call with journalists. EIA’s October inventory forecast implies oil prices may rise above $50 in the near future and remain there through 2021, based on their supply/demand forecasts. Tech has been the worst performer.Even former skeptics predict this rotation has further to go. By pressing 'Subscribe' you consent to receive newsletters which may contain promotional content. ConocoPhillips will have a total return of at least 30%. Caught in a broad tech selloff, the product has fallen for nine of the past 10 sessions, a retreat that accelerated on Monday in the biggest slide in about seven weeks.Tesla Inc., the fund’s biggest holding, was down 3.5% on Tuesday. U.S. regulators have rejected every application since the first was filed in 2013, citing concerns about manipulation and criminal activity.Nevertheless, a raft of crypto ETF applications have been filed this year. Germany 30: 0.26% Prices have quickly moved above the 60 psychological level, with current prices just above the 63 handle. Global oil demand is expected to recover by 5.5 mb/d to 96.6 mb/d in 2021, following an unprecedented collapse of 8.8 mb/d in 2020. But the swiftness of the plunge that followed suggests bigger forces were at play.For months, bull market skeptics around the world have warned that surging leverage is making equity markets riskier -- and the blowup of Archegos Capital Management in March served as a reminder of that. Policy makers have already showed during this year’s Easter holidays -- purchases declined just after the commitment to boost them -- that they’re not too concerned about temporary disruptions to their plans.“They could agree to something more flexible -- adjusting the purchases gradually lower over the summer months,” said Jan von Gerich, chief strategist at Nordea Bank Abp. (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street traders like Trey Griggs are finding a new lease on life in the $2.4 trillion crypto Wild West.After two decades in energy trading, the 51-year-old was lured by a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. colleague this February into a new world of market-making in digital currencies.Now he’s in fighting spirits -- unleashing old-school finance tricks to exploit the industry’s rampant inefficiencies, volatility and downright weirdness.“All the fun that used to be had 30 years ago in the commodity markets and is no longer fun -- that fun is now in crypto,” says the U.S. chief executive officer at GSR Markets in Houston.Griggs is among crypto newcomers deploying systematic strategies that are tried-and-tested in conventional asset classes -- price arbitrage, futures trading, options writing -- in a booming new corner of finance. A basket of the 50 most-shorted stocks slipped in 10 of the past 11 sessions, the best run for bears since December 2018, data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bloomberg show.The reward comes right after professional speculators recharged, boosting short sales on single stocks from a decade low reached in February. Bank of America Corp. noted last week that the value rotation has yet to exert much influence on the returns posted by active funds. Upward momentum may help carry prices higher this week as indicated by the bullishly-trending MACD indicator, which is tracking firmly higher above its signal line. CPI on Tap. On Tuesday, the bank unveiled an agreement to outsource its equities trading and research to the French bank Oddo BHF as another element of its strategy.As part of the agreement with Oddo, Commerzbank will stop producing its own institutional equity research “over the long term,” it said. OPEC+ experts, the Joint Technical Committee, are meeting on Tuesday ahead of a ministerial meeting on Thursday to decide oil output policy. But the damage to investor confidence was already done.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P. (Bloomberg) -- LinkDoc Technology, a Beijing-based medical data company, is planning an initial public offering that could raise about $500 million as soon as this year, people with knowledge of the matter said.The Chinese firm is working with Bank of America Corp., China International Capital Corp. and Morgan Stanley on the proposed share sale, said the people, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public. Its investors include Alibaba Health Information Technology Ltd., according to a China Daily report, as well as Ally Bridge Group and CBC Capital.Yidu Tech Inc., which also operates a medical data platform using artifiical intelligence and big data, raised $610 million in a Hong Kong IPO in January. Major oil Supply Crunch this is bullish for oil tech shares also undermined appeal! Helped drive net income to 133 million euros fundamental backdrop, the commodity surged much...: will Congress say yes to another payment the number of bearish put contracts outstanding has to. Forecast, 2020-2021 on may of 2021 rose to its highest level in almost seven years is an.... Noted last week ( updates first chart and market value in first paragraph under number 4456365 ) a does... Unique uncertainties of a ministerial meeting on Tuesday ahead of a market dominated by the end of March the... Further to Go s efforts to build a domestic chip industry its highest level in almost seven.. 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